More than 52 million people are under a severe weather threat across parts of the Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday, the first of several days of storms expected to last through the weekend — setting the stage for potential flash flooding.
This active severe weather pattern comes right on cue, as April is historically when the spring severe weather season begins to intensify across the middle of the country.
A dip in the jet stream is acting as an atmospheric conveyor belt for storms moving out of the West.
Warm temperatures spreading across the eastern two-thirds of the country are also enhancing severe weather across the Central US and fueling storms in the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic.
On Tuesday, severe storms dropped quarter-sized hail across parts of Iowa and Illinois, while wind gusts reached 75 mph across Ohio, western Pennsylvania and western New York, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).
Spring severe weather season begins across Central US
A cold front will move through and stall over the Plains on Wednesday, and severe storms are supposed to fire along a dryline — the boundary between dry air from the west and warm, moist air from the Gulf — forecast to set up over southern, central Kansas, western Oklahoma and the Red River Valley in North Texas.
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 3 out of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms for this corridor, with storms expected to trigger between 3 and 6 p.m. CT.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, these storms are expected to produce large, egg-sized hail. Storms are expected to organize into a line later in the evening, where the threat will shift to damaging wind gusts and potentially strong tornadoes (EF-2+).
A broader Level 2 threat stretches from northern Missouri cutting southeast across the Southern Plains through San Angelo, Texas to the US-Mexico border. Dallas is under a Level 1 threat.
In addition to the severe weather hazards, the FOX Forecast Center noted that the significant moisture in the atmosphere due to warmer temperatures will drive days of potential flash flooding.
“These storms will have plenty of fuel to produce heavy rain,” the Forecast Center said.
The greatest risk of flash flooding will be across parts of eastern Kansas, western Missouri and northern Oklahoma on Wednesday.
This system will track into the Midwest on Thursday, as thunderstorms reload over Chicago.
Meanwhile, the next severe weather system will move into the Plains and the Midwest by Friday. A Level 3 threat covers parts of Kansas, Iowa, Missouri and northern Oklahoma, which could produce damaging wind gusts, hail, and possibly a few tornadoes.
All told, more than half a foot of rain could fall in parts of the Plains and Mississippi Valley by the end of the week, including cities like Little Rock, Arkansas and St. Louis.
This pattern change signals the beginning of the spring severe weather season across the Southern Plains, where April averages the second-most tornadoes behind May.
Warm temperatures fuel severe weather across Great Lakes & Mid-Atlantic
In the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, storms will continue to develop across the warm front which will act like a track for storms to repeatedly move along over the next couple of days, with the main concerns being large hail, damaging wind gusts and heavy rain.
Severe storms were ongoing across Illinois, Indiana and the Ohio Valley early Wednesday.
Thunderstorms are expected to linger over Pennsylvania Wednesday throughout the day.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, the greatest potential for stronger storms Wednesday will be along a narrow corridor from West Virginia into North Virginia and then into parts of Maryland.
Parts of the Mid-Atlantic could see periods of on-and-off rain through the weekend.
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