The outcome of the war in Ukraine is also being played out in space. The American Starlink satellite network is currently essential to the Ukrainian military, providing connectivity for forces on the ground.
But the unpredictable nature of its owner, billionaire Elon Musk, is worrying Kyiv and the European Union.
“Elon Musk is in fact the guardian of Ukraine’s connectivity on the battlefield. And that’s a strategic vulnerability,” warns Arthur De Liedekerke, Senior Director of European Affairs for Rasmussen Global.
However, MEP Christophe Grudler, part of the Renew Europe parliamentary group, insists that the EU has alternatives capable of competing with the American network.
“We clearly have the means to replace Starlink,” he says.
However, the French MEP does not want to have to resort to this possibility in a hurry, as it will take some time to replace Starlink’s vast network of satellites.
“It is clear that if Starlink decides to cut the signal today, we have options, in particular with Govsatcom, which is the European network that we have brought into service and which, from June, will make it possible to supplement Starlink’s missing signal in Ukraine, if necessary”, he explained.
Govsatcom is about making available existing government space capabilities. The aim of the system is to provide reliable, secure networks for public authorities in the EU. Ukraine has already expressed an interest in the system.
According to Christophe Grudler, there would be no problem with this solution.
“The European Union is very committed to helping Ukraine, so there would certainly be agreement from all the Member States to come to Ukraine’s aid if it no longer had a Starlink signal in the future”, he said.
But Arthur De Liedekerke, Senior Director of European Affairs at the political consultancy firm Rasmussen Global, has some reservations about this option.
“GovSatcom is governmental secure satellite communications and it’s essentially to provide reliable, secure, strategically autonomous networks for communication services between governments in the EU. It couldn’t replace the kind of battlefield connectivity that we’re discussing for Ukraine,” he says.
“So it’s not a silver bullet at the moment.”
The industrial solution
The other option would be to rely on Eutelsat. The Franco-British company can provide services of equivalent quality to Starlink because it has also opted for a low-Earth orbit network.
However, the scale of the two companies is asymmetrical. Starlink has 7,000 satellites, compared with 630 for Eutelsat. But Eutelsat also has 35 satellites in geostationary orbit, at a greater distance from the Earth.
The Eutelsat option raises an industrial and commercial issue. Starlink has around 40,000 terminals in Ukraine, which are not only used by the military. Civilians also use it to connect to the Internet or to make calls.
By contrast, Eutelsat has 2,000 terminals on site. A further 4,000 could be deployed shortly and an order has been placed for a further 10,000 devices. Finally, the price of a Starlink terminal is estimated at €500 euros, compared with nearly €9,000 for Eutelsat’s equipment.
But the European company has political advantages, chief among them that it is not dependent on the United States.
“Eutelsat is our European champion, one that has convincing functioning solutions. And one that we need to be able to support through funding and political will,” said Arthur De Liedekerke.
The solution for the future
A final medium-term option exists in the form of the Iris2 project (Infrastructure for Resilience, Interconnection and Security by Satellite).
This network of 290 multi-orbit satellites, in low and medium Earth-orbit, will provide secure connectivity services for the EU.
The constellation will offer low latency in the form of ultra-fast transmissions close to the performance of terrestrial networks.
The 12-year public-private concession contract for the development and operation of Iris2 has been awarded to SpaceRISE.
The consortium includes Eutelsat, Spain’s Hispasat and Luxembourg’s SES, as well as space sector heavyweights Thales, OHB, Airbus Defence and Space, Telespazio, Deutsche Telekom, Orange and Hisdesat.
However, Iris2 is still a long way from implementation, since the system will not be fully operational until 2030.
But Christophe Grudler, who was rapporteur for the project at the European Parliament, is confident the services will be available sooner.
“From 2028, we will have an operational Iris2 constellation that will be able to provide telecommunications services to all the Member States that so wish. I would add that this will be the first time we have had a constellation secured with post-quantum cryptography, so cyber-attacks will not be possible on this constellation. It will be a world first with an ultra-secure signal, which is not the case with the Starlink signal either,” he said.
According to Arthur De Liedekerke, this diversity is essential.
“It’s about having options. It’s about not having a single point of failure. It’s being able to say no to one and still be online. And today, we’re not in a situation where we can do that,” he explained.
“We’ve let Ukraine’s war zone connectivity be in the hands of one man…that’s a strategic vulnerability. By having options, by having alternatives, by diversifying our partnerships, we avoid that single point of failure.”
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