The ruling centre-right coalition Democratic Alliance (AD/PSD-CDS) is expected to have remained the strongest political force in Portugal, with 32% of votes won in the Sunday general election, as the count passed the halfway mark soon after the polls closed.
With 64,14% of the vote counted, far-right party Chega which earned 22,79% is closed to the Socialist Party (PS) that currently holds 23,35% of the vote.
The difference between the two remains minimal, however.
Earlier on Sunday night, AD was largely expected to win with 32% of the votes after the general election on Sunday, domestic exit polls showed.
Chega’s second place is somewhat of a surprise, as it was predicted to come in third behind the PS. However, the polls gave the two a minimal difference — with 23% projected for the PS and 22.5% for Chega.
The Catholic University’s projection for RTP predicted that the abstention would likely be between 36% and 42% — a figure within the range of last year, when 40.16% of voters did not vote.
The election on Sunday was triggered by the Portuguese parliament’s vote of confidence, ordering the resignation of the PSD/CDS-PP minority executive a year and a day after the victory of the AD/PSD-CDS coalition in the early legislative elections of March 2024.
The vote took place after two motions of censure, which Prime Minister Luís Montenegro survived, were requested by Chega and the PCP following the controversy involving Montenegro and the family company Spinumviva.
The case raised doubts about compliance with the regime of incompatibilities and impediments for holders of public and political positions.
Political instability
The ballot deepens political uncertainty just as Portugal is considering investing more than €22 billion of EU development funds.
Voter discontent with a return to the polls could benefit the far-right Chega (Enough), which has fed off frustration with the two mainstream parties.
Portugal has been caught up in the rising European tide of populism, with Chega surging into third place in last year’s election.
The government, led by the Social Democrats in an alliance with a smaller party, fell amid a controversy centred on potential conflicts of interest in the business dealings of Montenegro’s family law firm.
Montenegro, who is standing for re-election, has denied any wrongdoing.
He said he left control of the firm to his wife and children when he became PSD’s leader in 2022 and has not been involved in its running.
The Socialists demanded a parliamentary inquiry into Montenegro’s conduct.
The Social Democrats are hoping that economic growth estimated at 1.9% last year, compared with the EU’s 0.8% average, and a jobless rate of 6.4%, roughly the EU average, will hold their support steady.
The Portuguese president has urged voters to participate actively in the country’s third general election in three years, saying the continent faces stiff challenges to its security and economy that require political stability.
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