After the first ballot on 18 May, candidates Rafal Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki have advanced to the second round of the Polish presidential election. The race is expected to be tight, with both candidates going head to head according to the latest polls.
So who is expected to win and what exactly do the latest polls show?
According to the latest aggregation of polls, Karol Nawrocki and Rafal Trzaskowski are tied, with both receiving 46.3% support.
Trzaskowski, who also ran in Poland’s last presidential election, lost narrowly to incumbent Andrzej Duda at the time, winning 48.97% of the vote compared to Duda’s 51.03%. In the first round of this year’s presidential election, Trzaskowski won by a narrow margin, winning 31.36% of the vote, closely followed by Nawrocki with 29.54% of the vote.
A key focus for the candidates running in the second round will be seeking the votes of those who chose other candidates during the first ballot. Candidates from the most right-wing parties Slawomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun won 14.8% and 6.34% of the vote respectively. According to experts, it is their supporters who may decide the outcome of the second round. Recently, both Trzaskowski and Nawrocki met Mentzen to discuss their views on his YouTube channel.
The election will be a critical moment for the current governing coalition, which is struggling to introduce reforms in the face of President Andrzej Duda’s conservative opposition. He is currently serving his second term and is therefore ineligible for re-election.
The election results will determine the ability of the incumbent coalition government to make important decisions on key issues in the country, such as civil partnerships and abortion rights, but also migration and national defence.
The second round of the presidential election will take place on 1 June. After they are completed, the results will be published by the State Electoral Commission (PKW). The winner will hold office for a period of five years, after which he or she will be eligible to run for a second term. The president-elect will take office before a joint session of the Sejm and Senate on 6 August.
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