Despite anti-immigration politicians recently gaining support, France, Germany and Italy would face big population problems in a zero-immigration scenario.
The EU’s population will be 6.6% lower by 2100, bringing the population down to 419 million from 449 million in 2024.
However, if migration were to freeze today, the population would decline by more than a third, according to the latest projections from Eurostat.
An ageing population, increased longevity and consistently low levels of fertility are among the reasons for these figures.
On the current migration trend, Latvia and Lithuania’s populations are set to see a record drop of 38%.
France and Germany will see the smallest decreases in their overall population, at 0.62% and 1%, respectively.
Only Luxembourg, Malta, and Sweden are expected to experience population growth.
But, when not taking migration into account, the EU population could decrease by 34%, resulting in a drop from 449 million in 2024 to 295 million by the end of the century.
Italy would see the highest fall in population with no migrants at 52%, while Spain and Malta follow with declines of 49% and 48%, respectively.
Meanwhile, Germany’s population would see a 37% drop by 2100, rather than the 1% predicted when taking migration into account.
Finally, France’s population decline would be as high as 13%, instead of 0.62%.
Anti-migration sentiments
Migration is a hot topic in the European Union, with leaders of the 27 countries often arguing over creating a common migration and asylum policy.
Remigration and border control have been repeated keywords in the past elections across the EU.
In the recently held federal election in Germany, the far-right party AfD brought back the term “remigration”, which refers to a policy that would see mass deportations of immigrants and naturalised citizens.
Meanwhile in Italy, Giorgia Meloni has prioritised reducing migration during her first term.
The country signed a five-year agreement last year to process up to 3,000 migrants a month outside the EU borders.
However, shutting the door to migrants would put most EU countries under increased economic pressure.
As the EU’s population ages, its labour force will shrink as costs from pensions and elderly care soar.
Most countries need tens of thousands of doctors, nurses, and other medical staff as their populations age and develop more health problems, while health workers quit or retire.
Many health systems in the EU are already dependent on immigrant doctors or nurses.
In Germany, for instance, over four million people work in the health and social care sector.
In 2019, nearly a quarter of these, including doctors and care staff, had a migrant background, according to the Expert Council on Integration and Migration.
Video editor • Mert Can Yilmaz
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