Here’s some not-great news that you still shouldn’t panic over. Astronomers have spotted a near-Earth asteroid with a roughly 1% chance of impacting Earth on Dec. 22, 2032. Don’t pencil that into your calendar as doomsday, though. Space agencies are monitoring the newly discovered asteroid and still learning more about it.
The asteroid is designated 2024 YR4 and was first reported to the Minor Planet Center on Dec. 27 last year. The MPC, part of the International Astronomical Union, maintains an official catalog of near-Earth objects like asteroids and comets. It reports, numbers and names new discoveries. The asteroid was spotted by multiple observatories.
The European Space Agency placed 2024 YR4 at the top of its asteroid risk list. Similarly, the space rock now has the top spot on NASA’s Sentry risk list. The Sentry list contains all known near-Earth asteroids with a non-zero probability of striking Earth.
Rating asteroid impact hazards
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The Torino Impact Hazard Scale rates potential asteroid and comet impacts. The newly discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 sits in the middle of the yellow zone with a 3 rating. White is no hazard; red is the most hazardous.
The asteroid is rated at a 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, a tool used for categorizing potential impacts. That means 2024 YR4 merits attention from astronomers, the public and public officials since its potential impact is less than a decade away. “An object that reaches this level is not uncommon; there have been several objects in the past that have reached this same rating and eventually dropped off as more data have come in,” NASA said in a statement on Jan. 29.
The highest level on the Torino Scale is a 10, which indicates a certain collision capable of catastrophic damage on a global level.
Current data shows 2024 YR4 is the only known large asteroid with an impact probability above 1%. NASA reminds people that there’s a roughly 99% chance the asteroid won’t impact our planet. Those are strong odds in our favor.
2024 YR4 size estimates
The asteroid is estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet wide. For scale, the Statue of Liberty (pedestal included) is about 300 feet tall. That’s worrisome for an asteroid, but it’s not a “planet killer.”
“An asteroid this size impacts Earth on average every few thousand years and could cause severe damage to a local region,” ESA said in a statement. The agency dialed in the probability of impact at an estimated 1.2%.
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An illustration of NASA’s DART spacecraft
Space agencies and organizations are coordinating efforts to track the asteroid and better understand its trajectory and size.
The space rock is currently on the move away from Earth. ESA is planning a series of observations that will include the use of the powerful Very Large Telescope in Chile.
“It is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 will fade from view before we are able to entirely rule out any chance of impact in 2032,” ESA said. “In this case, the asteroid will likely remain on ESA’s risk list until it becomes observable again in 2028.”
NASA and other space agencies have been working on planetary defense options in the case of a dangerous asteroid. NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test mission successfully redirected an asteroid moonlet by smashing a spacecraft into it in 2022. ESA suggested a spacecraft-based response may be explored if 2024 YR4 turns out to be a serious threat.
A lot of new information could emerge about the asteroid over the next few months. In the best-case scenario, it will be downgraded from “uh-oh” to “everything’s fine, no need to worry.”
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